• Fed / Jackson Hole: Chair Powell signaled policy easing is on the table (markets pricing a high chance of a September cut) while stressing data‑dependence. Fed also outlined a refreshed policy framework emphasis at Jackson Hole. Risk assets rallied into/after the speech; USD and yields eased from highs.

• Inflation pulse: CPI (Jul) at 2.7% YoY; core CPI ~3.1% YoY (BLS). Core PCE last published 2.8% YoY (Jun); July PCE due Aug 29. Nowcasts have August CPI/PCE hovering in the ~2.7–3.0% corridor.

• Rates & USD: The 10‑yr UST finished the week around 4.26–4.33%; direction hinges on PCE and payrolls. USD Index (DXY) oscillated in the high‑90s, whipsawing with rate‑cut odds and tariff headlines.

Commodities & Miners

Gold & Silver (week close context)

• Silver spot (XAGUSD): last official weekend print ~$38.8–$38.9, after tagging $39+ on Friday as Powell was read dovish. Gold chopped with the dollar but remains elevated on policy/fiscal risk.

Energy (Oil)

• WTI ~$63 / Brent ~$67 into the weekend, supported by a large U.S. crude draw (~‑6.0 Mbbl) and firmer jet fuel demand; EIA projects downside into late‑2025 as non‑OPEC+ supply builds.

Copper & Base Metals

• Tariff regime remains the swing factor. U.S. moves (and threats) around copper tariffs distorted regional pricing, pushed metal toward China/EM buyers, and pulled LME stocks to multi‑year lows earlier this summer; regulators tightened LME position rules. Watch trade policy headlines for next week’s tone.

Uranium

• Spot U₃O₈ ~ $74/lb (Aug 22); momentum improved mid‑year. Russian uranium import ban is in force with DOE waivers possible to 2028, keeping fuel‑chain risk premium alive. SPUT continues to hold sizable physical inventory (units backed by ~0.242 lb U₃O₈ per unit as of Aug 22).

Gold Miners (GDX)

• GDX closed $60.18 on Friday, a fresh 52‑week high area as bullion stayed firm and real yields softened. Near‑term path tracks PCE/FX; structurally, breadth has improved.

Growth & PMIs

• U.S.: S&P Global flash PMI (Aug) rose again (Composite ~55.4), with manufacturing back >50 and tariff‑driven input prices firming. Implies ~2–3% real growth pace for now.

• Eurozone/UK: Eurozone flash PMI hit a 15‑month high on better new orders; UK activity improved with services strength (manufacturing still sub‑50). Policy bias: incremental easing later in 2025.

• China: Policy focus shifted to targeted support (consumption/property stabilisation); LPRs left unchanged; manufacturing PMI (Caixin) dipped below 50 in July, with property stress still visible despite restructuring progress.

Geopolitics & Supply Chains (near‑term risk)

• Red Sea risk back on radar: Israeli strikes in Sanaa today after Houthi missile activity. Insurance premia and route diversions can re‑flair if attacks persist watch shipping/rates early week.

• Panama Canal: long‑running drought constraints eased vs. 2024, but structural water risk remains (reservoir plan faces legal challenges).

Macro & Fundamentals Weekly Wrap (24 Aug 2025)

Growth & Inflation (U.S.)

• Inflation: July CPI +2.7% YoY (core +3.1%), +0.2% MoM steady disinflation vs early‑2024 but core is sticky.
  Read‑through: Still above the Fed’s 2% target on core → keeps “higher-for-longer-ish,” but not restrictive enough to crush metals.

• Labor market: July unemployment 4.2%, +73k nonfarm payrolls a clear cooling vs H1.
  Read‑through: Softer jobs = easier path for the Fed to pivot gradually; supportive for gold/silver and miners.

• GDP: Q2 (advance) real GDP +3.0% QoQ annualized. Second estimate due late Aug.
  Read‑through: Growth resilient while inflation cools = “goldilocks” tilt for risk assets; for miners, earnings leverage improves if input costs ease.

The Fed & Rates

• Policy stance: The FOMC’s last setting left the fed funds target at 4.25–4.50% (June/July guidance), with Chair Powell at Jackson Hole (Aug 22) flagging progress on inflation but staying data‑dependent.

• Yields: Post‑Jackson Hole, 2‑yr down ~10 bps to ~3.69%, 10‑yr ~4.26% (Aug 22 close).
  Read‑through: Falling front‑end + anchored 10‑yr = easing financial conditions → tailwind for gold, silver, and rate‑sensitive miners.

PMIs / Activity Pulse

• S&P Global flash PMIs (Aug): U.S. composite stayed in expansion; global G4 remained comfortably >50.
  Read‑through: Demand backdrop is intact; if energy/input costs don’t re‑accelerate, margins for producers can widen.

Europe

• Inflation: Euro area July HICP 2.0% YoY headline; services still firm.

• ECB path: Market expects pause in Sept with debate about first cut later in 2025 as growth softens.
  Read‑through: A less‑hawkish ECB narrows U.S.–EU policy gaps → softer dollar impulse is constructive for precious metals.

China

• Policy rates: PBOC left LPR unchanged in August (1‑yr and 5‑yr steady after July reductions).

• Macro tone: Property remains a drag; authorities continue targeted support rather than broad stimulus.
  Read‑through: China isn’t delivering a big reflation burst; base‑metals beta muted, but precious‑metals safe‑haven/FX angles stay in play.

Commodities, Dollar, and Energy

• Gold: Still near record territory after pushing above $3,000/oz this year; supported by real‑yield slippage post‑Jackson Hole.

• Silver: Finished the week just under $39/oz (Aug 22: $38.91).

• Crude: WTI around $64 into the weekend (Aug 22).
  Read‑through: A softer dollar/real‑yield backdrop + stable energy costs = constructive margin setup for miners; silver at the high end of the range amplifies torque for Ag‑levered names.

What It Means for Miners (GDX/GDXJ & single names)

• Real rates drift lower + cooling core inflation = classic supportive regime for gold/silver miners’ multiples. (Fed/Powell & CPI)

• Growth not collapsing (Q2 GDP 3.0%) = volume risk contained while cost lines (diesel/consumables) are not surging.

• Europe/China unlikely to shock‑tighten → USD upside capped; any DXY softness generally lifts precious metals. (ECB & China policy)

Quick Positioning Take

• Bias: Overweight quality producers & developers with operating leverage to $1,900–$3,000 gold and $30–$40 silver; maintain a tactical sleeve for high‑beta silver names while respecting liquidity/volatility.

• Risks to view: Upside surprise in core inflation; abrupt rise in real yields; hard‑landing data shock; China property escalation.

What Matters for the Week Ahead (25–29 Aug)

1. US July PCE/Income/Spending (Fri) confirms/disputes the 2.7–3.0% inflation band; sets tone for Sep FOMC.

2. EIA weekly inventories (Wed) test of the “strong summer demand” narrative after the big draw.

3. China data drip and any property support headlines key for copper and bulk commodities positioning.

4. PMI revisions/global flashes durability of the Eurozone uptick and US manufacturing bounce.

(how this feeds our Supercycle lens)

• Liquidity is loosening at the margin (Fed signaling flexibility) while inflation is sticky‑but‑lower → bullish mix for precious metals/miners so long as the USD doesn’t break higher.

• Energy: Fundamentals split near‑term demand fine (U.S. draws), but EIA medium‑term skews softer on supply growth. Treat oil bounces as tactical unless geopolitics worsens.

• Uranium: Policy (Russia ban/waivers) and utility contracting keep the structural bid intact into 2026; drawdowns are more flow‑than‑fundamental.

• Copper: Trade policy is the wild card; inventory redistribution + tariffs = pricing dislocations more than demand collapse. Choose exposures with less U.S. tariff sensitivity.

Mining-Stock Bull-Market Checklist

(as of 24 Aug 2025 — fact‑checked)

Stage 1 Early Bull Market: Majors Lead

• ☑️ Gold holds a multi‑year breakout on weekly/monthly closes.
  Gold set fresh record highs in early August and has held elevated into late August.

• ☑️ Majors outperform gold (GDX/Gold ratio rising).
  VanEck GDX is up ~77% YTD as of Aug 22, outpacing spot gold’s rise and lifting the miners‑to‑gold ratio from 2024 lows.

• ☑️ Margins expanding (metal prices rising faster than costs).
  Q2/July earnings from large producers showed beats/strong cash flow on higher realized prices (e.g., Agnico, Eldorado), consistent with margin expansion.

• ☑️ ETF flows improving into majors (trend turning up).
  World Gold Council data showed global gold ETF inflows in recent months, a shift from earlier 2025 outflows.

• ☑️ Media sentiment still not euphoric.
  Despite records, reports highlight muted retail enthusiasm/hesitation i.e., not mania. Earlier in 2025, miner ETFs even saw outflows while prices rose.

Stage‑1 verdict: ON. Conditions support keeping a core in liquid, low‑AISC seniors while the trend proves itself.

Stage 2 Bull Market: Developers Take the Baton

• ⬜ GDXJ consistently outperforming GDX.
  Juniors have rallied but sustained outperformance vs. seniors isn’t yet confirmed across 2025 (watch GDXJ/GDX ratio into September). (Monitoring)

• ☑️ Updated studies show large NPV/IRR jumps at current prices.
  Company updates across developers/reference names have shown stronger economics at 2025 metals prices. (Multiple July–Aug releases/coverage)

• ☑️ Financing window open (oversubscribed raises/better terms).
  Examples include oversubscribed junior raises and premium financings in July–August.

• ☑️ M&A momentum (majors/JVs buying developers).
  2025 has seen notable deals: Royal Gold to acquire Sandstorm Gold; Zijin buying smaller producers/developersdeal flow is active.

• Not a full tick - keep watching.

• ☑️ Silver catching up (GSR trending toward the 70s).
  The gold–silver ratio fell to the high‑80s in August from ~105 in June moving the right way

• Keep watching

Stage‑2 verdict: Emerging. Several boxes are now ticked (financing/M&A/GSR improvement). A clear, persistent GDXJ > GDX trend would fully confirm Stage‑2 leadership.

Stage 3 Late Bull Market: Explorer Mania

• ⬜ Explorers easily raising at premiums. (Isolated cases only; not broad yet.)

• ⬜ Parabolic GDXJ performance vs. gold. (Not yet.)

• ⬜ Weak names rallying on no news. (Some pockets, but not market‑wide.)

• ⬜ “Silver mania” (GSR < 60) + mainstream hype. (GSR still ~80s; media tone not euphoric.)

Stage‑3 verdict: Not yet. Keep explorer exposure small and tactical until mania signals cluster.

Risk/Exit Dashboard (what would make us de‑risk)

• Parabolic reversal in gold/silver (weekly blow‑off and failure). (Not present as of this week.)

• Junior valuations detach from fundamentals (wide‑scale story stocks screaming). (Not yet.)

• Record ETF inflows + “squeeze” campaigns trending. (Flows improving, but not extreme.)

• Real yields spike higher on a hawkish policy turn.
  10‑yr TIPS real yields remain near ~2% and have eased from May highs; a renewed surge would be a warning.

One‑liner Takeaway for the checklist

We’re firmly in late‑Stage‑1/early‑Stage‑2: gold’s breakout is real; seniors lead with healthier margins; flows and M&A are back; silver is closing the gap. The tell to watch next is sustained GDXJ>GDX that’s the green light to scale developer exposure while keeping explorer bets selective.

Two Miner picks:

1. Silver Mountain Resources (AGMR) – Bull Case

• Oversubscribed C$25M bought-deal in July 2025 reveals strong institutional appetite and balance-sheet firepower.

• Secured 20-year land-use agreement & near-term production reset at the Reliquias mine in Peru operations restarting under stable governance.

• Advancing project financing: US$10M prepayment facility in the works (July), anchored by Trafigura, a major commodities player adds credibility and non-dilutive funding.

• Clean cap table & strong leverage profile: No debt, ~C$3.6M working capital, and ~35 Moz Ag resources with ~15 Moz in measured & indicated. EV under C$55M (up nearly 200% over the past 4 months).

Bottom Line: Well-capitalized, permit-clear, fractional near-term silver production upside AGMR is structurally set up to rally if metals stay firm.

2. Blackrock Silver (BRC) – Bull Case

• High-grade drill results live at Tonopah West: 4.2 m @ 700 g/t AgEq (including 0.3 m @ 3,182 g/t AgEq) plus other metre‑plus intercepts > 1 kg/t AgEq name that drill pattern.

• Insider buying and new 12‑month highs: Persistent, high-vol insider accumulation (Ontario‑linked buyer) through June–July, with share price pushing into yearly highs near CAD 0.62–0.63.

• Scaled-to-index recognition: Added to the Solactive Global Silver Miners Index (SIL) a milestone that increases passive flow and sector visibility.

• Permitting and expansion underway: Hired engineering partners (Westland) to secure underground decline & test-mining permits; successful M&I conversion drilling supports resource continuity.

Bottom Line: BRC delivers high-quality Tonopah exposure with ongoing drill results, institutional validation via index inclusion, and insider confidence very strong momentum as a mid-bull developer.

SUPERCYCLE SIGNALS CHECKLIST

🧠 Smart Money Behavior

• 🟠 Commercial hedging (COT): Latest CFTC report (week to Aug 19, 2025) shows producers/merchants remain net short in COMEX gold and silver, i.e., hedging still elevated vs. specs’ net longs tactically a headwind even inside a structural bull.

• 🟢 Central‑bank demand: WGC’s Gold Demand Trends Q2‑2025 confirms robust official‑sector buying through H1; and its 2025 Central Bank Survey says 95% of reserve managers expect global gold holdings to rise and 43% plan to add gold within 12 months. (Note: PBoC reported no change in July holdings.) Net: still a key tailwind.

• 🟡 M&A in miners: Activity is warming but not a blowout: Gold Fields–Gold Road $2.4B takeover heads to a vote (Aug 15), and Torex Gold moved to acquire Prime Mining in July. Monitoring for follow‑through.

🏛️ Macro Landscape

• 🟠 Real rates: 10‑yr TIPS real yield ~1.74–1.75% on Aug 22 off spring highs but still positive; not an outright tailwind yet.

• 🟢 US dollar (DXY): Dollar weaker into the weekend (~97.7 close Fri), keeping a supportive backdrop for metals.

• 🟡 Inflation pulse: July CPI +2.7% y/y (released Aug 13); July PPI +0.9% y/y / +0.3% m/m (Aug 14). “Sticky‑ish” but contained supportive for gold yet keeps headline volatility alive.

• 🟢 Bonds/vol: 10‑yr UST ~3.94% (Aug 22 close) with Treasury vol (MOVE) near multi‑year lows in July, signaling calmer rates — generally constructive for risk and metals.

💥 Geopolitical Drivers

• 🟢 Reserve diversification / BRICS narrative: WGC’s 2025 central‑bank survey shows a broad shift toward gold in reserves (see above), consistent with ongoing diversification away from single‑currency risk.

• 🟢 Broad tensions: August flow notes repeatedly cite geopolitics and a softer USD behind firmer gold; futures even set a record earlier this month, underscoring the risk premium in the tape.

💡 Retail & Sentiment

• 🟡 Media tone: Coverage is slightly elevated (records/headlines) but still far from 2020‑style euphoria constructive, not manic.

• 🟡 Attention rotation: Tech/AI remains dominant in equity narratives (metals getting more airtime, but not center stage) a historically decent backdrop for a sustained metals grind. (General sentiment read; keep this qualitative.)

🔍 Physical‑Market Signals

• 🟡 COMEX stocks: Warehouse tallies through mid‑/late‑Aug show no acute drawdown (silver stocks roughly stable y/y; gold modestly higher) not tight, not loose. Directionally neutral.

• 🟢 Lease rates / tightness: Into July, gold & silver lease rates rose on tighter supply a classic signal of underlying firmness; still relevant through August.

• 🟡 Retail premiums: Example: US 1‑oz Silver Eagle pricing this weekend implies mid‑teens % premium over spot elevated vs. pre‑2020 norms but far from stress.

🧰 Toolkit Alignment (Actionability)

• Signal count: Greens outnumber true reds (USD drift ↓, central‑bank demand ↑, calmer rates, lease‑rate firmness). Ambers = real‑rate ceiling still high, mixed COT, and “not‑tight” inventories.
  Net = 🟢 Cautiously Bullish for the super‑cycle path. Bias = buy pullbacks into well‑defined ICT discount zones/OBs & FVG fills, scale out at obvious liquidity pools (recent swing highs).

• Week‑end caveat: Friday’s closes drive the macro marks above; reassess DXY/UST/TIPS and COT prints mid‑week for drift.

🔑 Conclusion: Where We Stand

The signals toolkit this week tilts cautiously bullish. We’ve got:

• Central banks and BRICS flows continuing to underpin structural demand.

• A weaker USD and calmer bond volatility adding support.

• Physical market firmness via lease rates confirming underlying tightness.

Offsetting those positives:

• Commercial hedging remains heavy a tactical headwind.

• Real rates are still firmly positive, keeping a lid on how far metals can run without new catalysts.

• Inventories and retail premiums look stable, not screaming stress or mania (yet).

Net takeaway → The supercycle roadmap remains intact. Gold and silver are in the structural bull lane, but the tape is likely to keep rewarding discipline: buying pullbacks into ICT discount zones, scaling into strength, and not chasing froth.

For mining equities, we’re still in the late Stage-1 / early Stage-2 handoff majors providing the base while developers begin to re-rate. Explorers are not yet in mania mode, which leaves plenty of torque still ahead.

➡️ Bottom line: Stay positioned, stay patient, and let the flows work. The capital rotation is happening don’t overtrade the noise.

Keep reading for gold and silver analysis + more

Macro Study Summary – 16th August 2025

The global backdrop is tilting in favor of precious metals. With the US 10Y yield steady at 4.33% and the dollar soft near 97.36, real yields are stable but no longer a headwind. Gold ($3,335.7) and silver hovering ($37.99) are drawing flows as investors hedge against slowing growth and sticky inflation.

Oil ($74.6) continues to weaken, reflecting softer demand expectations, while uranium and copper remain structurally supported by long-term supply deficits. The rotation is clear: energy is losing momentum, while monetary metals are reclaiming the driver’s seat.

In short, the commodity supercycle remains intact, but leadership has shifted precious metals lead near-term, energy consolidates, and industrial metals prepare for the next phase of global revaluation.

Rates & USD: DXY sitting <98 with the 10Y at 4.33% is a supportive mix for bullion: real-yield impulse is easing and the dollar is not in runaway mode. That keeps gold steady near 3,336 and gives silver room above 37.9.

Liquidity & positioning: Miners firm (GDX 58.3, GDXJ 73.9) while oil bleeds (WTI 62.3). The market is rotating toward metals/miners and away from energy beta consistent with easing growth, stable inflation prints, and expectations for policy accommodation into year-end.

Commodities split:

• Metals (gold/silver/uranium): structural deficits + reserve diversification + falling USD impulse = constructive.

• Energy (oil): supply looser, macro growth soft → pressure on crude unless there’s a new supply shock.

Uranium: UX1 73 shows the term market still tight; utilities’ uncovered demand + project delays keep the bid under the strip. That underpins URNM/URA and selective producers.

SMC/ICT-informed levels & projections (this week)

Gold (3,335.7)

• Liquidity: sell-side pools stacked 3,320–3,305; buy-side resting above 3,374 → 3,409 (prior H1/4H swing highs).

• Base case: sweep or tag of 3,325–3,315 → expansion to 3,374, then 3,409.

• Stretch: if momentum holds, magnet toward 3,500 weekly BSL.

• Invalidation: daily close < 3,300 opens 3,268 (weekly low) FVG fill.

Silver (37.994)

• Structure: reclaimed 1H OB; SSL just below 37.60–37.45; liquidity above 38.35–38.75 then 39.35–39.50.

• Base case: hold 37.6 → run 38.7 then 39.3–39.5.

• Invalidation: acceptance < 37.45 delays squeeze and risks 36.90–36.20 FVG.

WTI Crude (62.33)

• Trend down; multiple unfilled daily FVG/OB 64.8–66.8 above; fresh SSL under 61.9–59.8.

• Base case: small relief bounce can fill 64–66; failure → 59.8 then 55.1 weekly demand.

• Bull alt (lower-prob): acceptance back above 66.8 flips bias to 70–71.

Uranium (UX1! 73.00)

• Holding above prior balance; buy-side liq sits 74.5/76.

• Base case: grind 73 → 75–76; dips to 71–72 are accumulative while utilities continue to term up.

Miners (GDX 58.28 / GDXJ 73.88)

• Both sitting on reclaimed OBs; shallow pullbacks into GDX 57.2–56.5 / GDXJ 72.2–71.5 favored for continuation.

• Targets: GDX 60–62 first; GDXJ 76–78.

Bottom line

• With DXY 97.36 and 10Y 4.33%, metals retain the edge; oil weakness stays the tell for slowing growth.

• Our roadmap: buy dips in gold/silver & quality miners, stay selective/defensive on energy, and keep leaning into uranium strength while term prices hold >70.

GOLD ANALYSIS

Current Price: $3,335

1. Weekly Chart (Macro Bias)

• Structure shows gold consolidating after a strong impulsive leg.

• Liquidity pools:
  

  • Buy-side liquidity (BSL): around $3,500–$3,520 (equal highs).

  • Sell-side liquidity (SSL): around $3,200–$3,100.

• Smart money typically hunts these levels.

• Weekly bias = still bullish until $3,200 breaks cleanly.

2. Daily Chart (Refinement)

• Recent sweep of $3,375–$3,400 liquidity → rejection followed.

• Order blocks + inefficiencies show unfilled demand around $3,275–$3,300.

• Liquidity void below suggests price may dip to fill inefficiency before next move up.

3. 4H & 1H (Execution Windows)

• On 4H: price just tapped liquidity around $3,410 → rejection.

• On 1H: consolidating near $3,330 support. Liquidity sits at:

  • Above: $3,375–$3,400 (buy stops).

  • Below: $3,320–$3,300 (sell stops).

• This tells us we are in a range where both sides of liquidity will be taken before the next macro leg.

4. Projection & Prediction

• Short-term (days–week): Expect a raid on $3,320–$3,300 liquidity (sell stops) before demand kicks in.

• Medium-term (weeks): After clearing downside liquidity, gold likely reclaims $3,400–$3,500, targeting the weekly BSL at $3,520+.

• Invalidation: A clean break and daily close below $3,100 → opens deeper correction into $2,950.

✅ Supercycle Takeaway:

Gold remains in bullish macro structure, but smart money needs to clean out weak longs first. That means a possible fakeout dip into $3,300 demand zone before running to new highs above $3,500. The real move will likely align with DXY weakness (already softening) and continued commodity rotation.

SILVER

Monthly (Macro Bias)

• Price is trading at $37.99, just under the macro high of $39.52.

• Strong impulsive move since 2023 with consistent higher highs & higher lows.

• Liquidity: Above $39.50 sits resting liquidity (buy stops). Market makers know it. That makes $40+ a magnet.

• Macro structure: Bullish order flow remains intact unless we close below $35.

👉 Macro projection: Target $40–42 liquidity sweep, potential extension to $45 later this year if macro tailwinds (DXY weakness, Fed cuts, fiscal stress) align.

Daily (Micro Targets)

• Clean sell-side liquidity sweep around $37.5 (noted on your chart). Price rejected from that zone and is building a higher base.

• Resistance at $39.50 remains the daily key level.

• Structure: Price is consolidating in a range $37.5 – $39.5.

👉 Daily projection: Expect price to push back into $38.8–39.5 short-term, sweeping highs. If momentum is strong, continuation to $40.5+.

4H Chart (Execution Map)

• Liquidity grab confirmed around $37.8 (sell-side taken).

• We’re now inside a bullish order block with a bounce.

• Internal range liquidity (38.3–38.7) is next upside target.

👉 4H projection: Likely scenario = a run to 38.5–39.0, retrace, then continuation to $39.5.

1H Chart (Intra-Day)

• You marked a 1H OB just below current price. Price tapped into it, confirming demand.

• Higher-timeframe bias + liquidity grab means this OB could be the launchpad.

• Short-term liquidity sits at 38.4–38.7, which aligns with intraday upside.

👉 1H projection: Price likely drives toward $38.7 → $39.3 in the next sessions.

Price Prediction Path

1. Immediate reclaim from $37.9 toward $38.7–39.0.

2. Sweep the $39.5 highs.

3. If momentum continues, break into $40.5–42.

4. Macro extension: $45 is the “stretch target” before any deeper retrace.

✅ Bias: Bullish continuation.

🎯 Short-term target: $38.7 → $39.5

🎯 Medium target: $40.5 → $42

🚨 Invalidation: A daily close below $37.5 (would re-open $36.2 test).

🔎GDX Analysis (VanEck Gold Miners ETF)

Current Price: $58.28

Market Structure

• On the daily & weekly, GDX is in a clear bullish structure: HL → HH progression since spring lows.

• BOS (Break of Structure) occurred above $55.27, confirming buyers are in control.

• Current consolidation just above $57.98 BSL = accumulation zone for next leg up.

Liquidity Levels (Key Pools)

• BSL: $57.98 (already swept, liquidity grab complete).

• SSL: $55.27 & deeper $50.42 (untapped liquidity, potential downside targets if retracement occurs).

• Major BSL above: $67.20 → This is the macro liquidity target.

Order Blocks & FVGs

• 1H OB: around $55.26 → strong bullish demand zone if price revisits.

• 4H OB: between $50–52 → deep retracement zone, only likely if macro shifts.

• 1H FVG (Fair Value Gap): ~$54.7–55.2 → if filled, expect continuation higher.

Projection & Scenarios

✅Bullish Base Case (Most Probable)

• Price consolidates between $57–59 → accumulation.

• Then expansion to $62–65 range.

• Long-term macro target: $67.20 BSL (likely before Q1 2026 if gold holds above $3,300).

⚠️Bearish Retracement Scenario

• If $57.9 fails, GDX may wick down to $55 FVG.

• Deeper flush only if gold corrects hard → $50.4 4H OB.

• Still bullish unless $50 breaks (invalidates bullish structure).

Macro Overlay (Gold & DXY)

• Gold at $3,335 supports miners’ resilience.

• DXY trending down (97.36) = tailwind for gold & GDX.

• Yield at 4.32% elevated but stable; unless spiking further, miners should outperform.

🎯Price Prediction (ICT + SMC Projection)

• Near-term (Aug–Sep): $62–63

• Medium-term (Q4 2025): $65+

• Macro Target (2026): $67.20 liquidity sweep

➡️ In summary: Bullish continuation is most probable, with dips into $55–57 being healthy pullbacks before expansion to $62–67.

GDX has already hit two of our targets as signalled this month.

HIGH TORQUE SILVER STOCKS

SUNDAY REPORT Free screening analysis

Every week I’ll run a stock through our screener for our free subs. Our paid subs get full access to our screener and are able to run their portfolios through it.

STOCK PICK - BRC

MODEL 1

• Flagship Assets: Tonopah West (Nevada) high-grade epithermal plus Silver Cloud lease project

high-grade Merten vein

• PEA Status: Strong PEA (AISC competitive, robust IRR) with ongoing permitting and M&I conversion drilling

Fundamentals Score: 8.9 / 10 – High-Bullish

Model 2 – Risk-Adjusted Rating (RAR)

Jurisdiction Risk 7.5 Nevada is mining-friendly with permitting complexity

Execution Risk 7.0 Must convert resource and permit underground decline

Financing / Dilution 7.5 Recent financing, but strong insider confidence reduces risk

Commodity Sensitivity 8.5 High silver leverage; still dependent on Ag price cycles

RAR Score: 7.6 / 10 – Bullish

Model 3 – Market Sentiment & Technical

• Liquidity / Coverage: 7.0/10 follows by precious metals funds, improved visibility

• Cycle Position: 8.0/10 Highly aligned with silver bull phase

• Technical Sentiment: 7.0/10 Indicators skew bullish; charts supported by continued drill news and investor demand

Model 3 Score: 7.3 / 10 – Bullish

5. Catalyst Engine (12–18 Months)

Major upcoming milestones:

• Resource update (Q3 2025) incorporating Eastern Step-Out results

• Permitting and engineering progress for underground decline & test mining

• Further high-grade drill results expected from East expansion (1.2 km trend)

Catalyst Score: 8.1 / 10 – Bullish

Aggregate Risk: Moderate

Upside Potential Bands

• Base Case: 3–5× on news of resource conversion and permit de-risking

• Risk-Adjusted: 5–7× If underground plan advances and early revenue potential recognized

• Supercycle: 10×+ If silver continues rising and BRC executes trigger projects toward production

Final Verdict

• Blended Total Score: ~7.9 / 10

• Verdict: Strong Buy / Accumulate (Color: Green) 🟢
  Why? Blackrock features a high-grade, district-scale silver development in top North American jurisdiction, with active drill success, financing in place, insider conviction, and multiple catalysts ahead.

Copper is range-bound, but global macro still leans bullish given supply tightness. Key level: $4.50 support. Break higher targets $4.70 liquidity.

Outlook: Neutral/Bullish bias.

📌 Key Takeaways

• Gold & Silver consolidating before next breakout.

• Uranium continues steady climb — strongest commodity chart.

• Oil weak near $62, risk of $60 test before reversal.

• Miners catching bids — silver juniors especially.

• Equities remain soft, dollar downtrend is commodity tailwind.

🔮 Supercycle Capital Outlook

We remain positioned for the commodities supercycle:

• Precious metals are primed for higher highs.

• Uranium is the stealth leader of this cycle.

• Energy pullbacks are opportunities.

• Miners and ETFs are reasserting leadership, confirming the thesis.

Conclusion

This week’s analysis reinforces what we’ve been building at Supercycle Capital: the commodity revaluation is not a “what if,” it’s already underway. Gold and silver are reclaiming leadership, uranium remains structurally bullish, and selective miners continue to outperform when placed against our liquidity framework and screener.

The macro study shows us that the old drivers oil, the dollar, and yields are no longer dictating the entire cycle. Instead, capital is flowing toward assets with real scarcity and long-term structural tailwinds. This is exactly where contrarians thrive.

As always, our Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and ICT framework give us the edge to anticipate liquidity grabs and map price trajectories with precision. Three of three recent signals have already hit, proving the process works. Overall 11 out of 11 signals have hit this month in August.

The key takeaway: the supercycle is alive, the signals are hitting, and the opportunities in front of us are only getting stronger.

Wednesday and Friday’s premium group get more in depth cycle signals and every day analysis in the commodity sector/stocks.

Thank you for reading,

Smart Money Behavior

✅ Commercial hedging is reducing COT net short positions in gold and silver have pulled back from peak levels.

✅ Central banks are still buying gold China, Russia, and the wider BRICS bloc remain consistent accumulators.

🟡 M&A activity in miners Ongoing, but no major headline deal this week.

Macro Landscape

✅ Real interest rates remain flat to negative Inflation combined with an easing policy bias is keeping real yields low.

✅ The US dollar is under 100 DXY sits at 97.858, well below the trigger level.

✅ Inflation remains sticky to re-accelerating Core inflation readings are holding firm.

✅ Bonds are struggling and yields are rising Persistent selling pressure is keeping UST yields elevated.

Geopolitical Drivers

✅ BRICS nations continue pushing for gold-backed trade and currency frameworks.

✅ Escalating tensions are visible from Taiwan and the Middle East to tariff-related disputes.

✅ De-dollarization is accelerating More oil and commodity trades are settling in yuan or gold.

Retail + Sentiment

✅ Social media sentiment shows early-stage hype mixed with frustration in gold/silver circles classic early-cycle psychology.

✅ Influencers are still focused elsewhere Tech and crypto dominate their attention.

✅ The “Silver Hype Thermometer” is warming but far from mania.

Physical Market Signals

✅ Silver and gold premiums are rising in physical markets evidence of tightening supply.

✅ Silver lease rates are spiking a bullish scarcity indicator.

🟡 COMEX and LBMA inventories are declining from recent highs but not yet at crisis levels.

Toolkit Alignment

✅ More than four major categories above are flashing green price action, macro conditions, sentiment, and physical market strength are all aligned.

✅ we are emotionally grounded and following our plan no deviation from the strategy.

✅ Scale-in and scale-out strategies are ready positions are being actively managed according to plan.

After the price projections we are also going to breakdown the financial calendar for next week. And how it can affect our positions + what to look out for + Keep reading for macro thesis and analysis on Brics and gold revaluation.

Our Wednesday signals premium group will receive more in depth signals on more miners and important charts. Last week we pulled off 6/6 signals hit with more following the map we projected.

In the signals section, we have mainly highlighted short/mid and long term price projections which you can analyse and take on board. In regards to the concepts.. I’ll give a quick breakdown of what Supercycle capitals strategy entails:

At Supercycle Capital, we combine Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and the most refined ICT (Inner Circle Trader) principles to map the market like the professionals who truly move it. This means we’re not guessing we’re tracking liquidity pools, fair value gaps (FVGs), order blocks (OBs), buy/sell-side liquidity (BSL/SSL), and optimal trade entries (OTEs) to anticipate where price is most likely to run next.

Unlike conventional technical analysis that often reacts late, SMC/ICT is built on the idea that price moves to seek liquidity targeting stops above highs or below lows, rebalancing inefficiencies, and respecting key institutional footprints. By understanding this blueprint, we can project short-, mid-, and long-term roadmaps with clear invalidation levels.

Every chart in this report follows that same approach:

1. Identify liquidity pools (where traders are trapped or stops are resting).

2. Locate imbalances (FVGs) that price wants to revisit.

3. Mark institutional zones (OBs) where big money enters.

4. Map the sequence short-term raids, mid-term expansions, and long-term cycle targets.

This is why our projections aren’t just “levels” they’re a liquidity roadmap that explains why price should go there, and what to expect when it does.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – ICT & SMC Breakdown

Technical Structure

• Current Price: 97.85 (as of latest data)

• Market Context: DXY remains in a decisive bearish structure after the multi-month breakdown from the 2022–2023 highs. The sequence shows lower highs and lower lows across monthly, weekly, and daily charts, with price now testing short-term support.

Price Projection Path

SSL = Sell side liquidity

BSL= Buy side liquidity

1. Short-term:
   Possible sweep of 97.52 SSL to fill 1H FVG into 97.00 daily demand before any meaningful bounce.

   • If 97.00 holds, price may run to 98.64 BSL (liquidity grab) before continuation down.

2. Medium-term:

   • Failure to hold 97.00 will open the path to deeper downside targets:

     • 95.90 → 94.60 → 93.17 → 91.77 (monthly liquidity zones).

   • These levels align with macro bearish USD trend, increasing odds of capital rotation into commodities.

3. Macro Target:
   

   • 89.20 long-term SSL (multi-year liquidity pool). This is the endgame liquidity hunt if global macro continues to pressure USD through BRICS-led de-dollarization and Fed rate-cut cycles.

Trading Framework

OB = Order block

• Bearish Bias while below 99.80 daily supply zone.

• Short-term Play: Look for liquidity sweep of 97.52 into 97.00 OB, then reaction towards 98.64 inducement zone.

• Medium-term Play: Fade rallies into premium OBs (98.64 & 99.80) targeting 95.90 and 94.60 SSL.

Macro Context

• Fed Policy Outlook: Weakening US growth data, coupled with an approaching rate cut cycle, is suppressing USD demand.

• BRICS & Gold Revaluation: August BRICS summit discussions on trade settlement in non-USD terms further pressure the dollar structurally.

• Commodity Impact: A sustained DXY drop below 95 unlocks significant upside potential for gold, silver, and broader commodity indices, as capital seeks inflation hedges and real assets.

Silver – ICT/SMC Breakdown & Macro Outlook

Current Price: $38.34

Bias: Bullish in the short term while holding above $38.00, with potential upside liquidity hunts before a larger corrective phase.

Silver has rallied strongly from the $36.20 low, reclaiming multiple short-term structures and running into the $38.50 area where near-term buy-side liquidity sits. Price is now consolidating just under major weekly resistance.

Projected Price Path

1. Short-term:

   • Likely to sweep $38.50 intraday BSL, possibly extending to $39.35–$39.52 to clear resting stops.

   • Expect rejection from the $39.35–$39.52 OB/BSL confluence, as it sits in premium pricing relative to the recent move.

   2. Medium-term:
   

   • After liquidity run above $39.35–$39.52, watch for displacement down into $38.00 SSL pool.

   • Break below $38.00 targets $37.60 SSL, then potentially $36.20 demand OB for a more significant reaction

   Macro Target Zones:
   

   • Upside: $41.00–$41.50 (only if DXY continues decisive breakdown below $97.00).

   • Downside: $36.20 (high-probability re-test zone before sustained rally).

   SMC / ICT Roadmap

   • Short-term: Raids below prior swing lows to clean out liquidity before expansion.

   • Mid-term: Reclaim key OBs above to trigger momentum buying.

   • Long-term: $50 liquidity pool is a magnet above it sits untapped buy-side liquidity that could extend to $65–70

2. Macro Drivers

3. Dollar Weakness: A DXY breakdown towards 95 or lower provides tailwind for precious metals.

4. Fed & Rates: Market pricing of future rate cuts in late 2025 supports gold and silver pricing structurally.

5. Industrial Demand: Solar and EV sectors continue to boost silver’s real-world demand profile, tightening supply over the medium term.

6. Geopolitics: BRICS trade settlement in gold/silver-linked assets would structurally boost the white metal’s strategic role.

Trading Framework

• Bias: Bullish short-term → Bearish retracement once premium liquidity is swept.

• Setup:
  

  • Look for longs on dips above $38.00 targeting $39.35–$39.52 liquidity.

  • Watch for short setups if price delivers displacement down after sweeping $39.35–$39.52.

  • Key long re-entry: $36.20–$36.50 demand OB.

3. Price Targets

Short-Term (Days – 2 Weeks)

• TP1: $39.80 (First liquidity sweep)

• TP2: $41.07 (Macro BSL target from chart)

Mid-Term (1–3 Months)

• If $41.07 breaks with displacement, price could target $43.50, the next unfilled macro FVG.

Long-Term (6–12 Months)

• Macro structure supports an eventual re-test of $47–50, aligning with 2020/2021 highs.

• A break above $50 opens the door for $58–60 during the current commodities supercycle phase.

4. Execution Plan (ICT Playbook)

• Entry Zones:
  

  1. Pullback into $38.10–38.30 (intra-day FVG)

  2. Deeper discount entries inside $37.20–37.50 (daily demand)

• Confirmation:
  Drop to 15m or 1H chart — enter on a BOS + FVG retest inside the discount zone. We will run through these kind of entries on our premium signals service

• Invalidation:
  Daily close below $36.50 breaks the bullish bias and suggests re-accumulation is not yet complete.

Gold – ICT/SMC Breakdown & Macro Outlook

Current Price: $3,397

Bias: Bullish-to-neutral in the immediate term, with a focus on upside liquidity sweeps before potential retracement.

Technical Structure

Gold is consolidating just under a key weekly liquidity shelf after a strong rally that broke prior structure and displaced through multiple bearish FVGs. Price is currently trading within a supply zone linked to previous liquidity grabs at $3,420–$3,450.

Projected Price Path

1. Short-term:
   

   • Likely to run $3,409 BSL and extend into $3,420–$3,450 to clear resting liquidity.

   • Watch for rejection signals in this OB zone; premium pricing suggests high probability of reaction.

2. Medium-term:
   

   • After liquidity sweep above $3,450, displacement could target $3,358 SSL on trendline.

   • Break below $3,358 opens path to $3,344 OB, with $3,281–$3,244 as deeper downside liquidity targets.

3. Macro Target Zones:
   

   • Upside: $3,500 is a high-probability liquidity magnet if DXY continues to weaken.

   • Downside: $3,244 remains the key structural demand to hold for long-term bullish continuation.

   Macro Drivers

   • Dollar Weakness: If DXY trades toward 95, gold’s path to $3,500+ accelerates.

   • Geopolitical Hedging: Central bank demand remains strong; BRICS gold-settlement discussions are a key bullish tailwind.

   • Inflation Hedge: With rate cuts projected in late 2025, real yields could compress, supporting gold’s valuation.

   • Liquidity Rotation: Gold remains the prime beneficiary when risk-off flows combine with a weak USD.

Long-Term Context

Gold’s April 2025 high at $3,500 was a historic milestone, but on a macro scale, the move is still unfolding in an extended bull market phase. Clearing $3,500 on a weekly close would confirm breakout conditions toward $3,650 and $3,800 over the following months, while holding $3,244 as the key bullish invalidation.

Trading Framework

• Bias: Bullish toward $3,450–$3,500, then looking for a retracement to $3,344–$3,358.

• Setup:
  

  • Intraday longs → Above $3,358 targeting $3,420–$3,450 liquidity.

  • Swing shorts → From $3,450 OB targeting $3,358–$3,344 demand.

  • Swing longs → On strong reaction from $3,344 or deeper $3,281 OB.

Copper (HG) – SMC & ICT Breakdown

Weekly Structure

• The weekly chart shows a clear sweep of Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) above the $5.98 high before a sharp rejection, leaving a significant imbalance and marking the weekly order block as a future supply zone.

• Price retraced aggressively into a deeper level, tapping just above Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) around $4.37, which aligns with a prior weekly demand zone.

• Two unmitigated supply areas are left above — around $5.00–$5.10 and $5.60–$5.70 — likely future targets for retracement before any further downside.

Price Projections

• Bullish Path:
  

  1. Short-term: Fill FVG to $4.95–$5.10.

  2. Medium-term: Test $5.60–$5.70 supply zone if macro sentiment improves.

  3. Structural break above $5.70 reopens $5.98 highs.

Bias: Short-term bullish retracement into imbalances, but still within a higher-timeframe corrective leg unless $5.10+ is reclaimed.

Still watching coppers price action,

• Bearish Path:
  

  1. Failure to clear $4.55–$4.60 resistance would keep price capped.

  2. Liquidity run below $4.37 SSL to target deeper demand at $4.07.

  3. Extended weakness could reach $3.95 if global growth data deteriorates.

But then this will lean into the bullish macro edge revolving around copper right now so our long term thesis is definitely record breaking new all time highs.

Macro Overlay

• China Demand Pulse – Copper remains highly correlated to Chinese industrial demand. July PMI numbers hinted at recovery, but stimulus has been measured, not aggressive. If Beijing announces broader infrastructure spending in Q4, copper could spike sharply.

• Energy Transition Trade – Global electrification targets require substantial copper, but current mining supply growth is modest. Any supply disruption (Chile, Peru) would be price-supportive.

• US Dollar – DXY strength has been capping commodities broadly. A turn in USD, especially if Fed signals easing in late 2025, would be a tailwind for copper.

Hecla Mining (HL) – ICT/SMC Breakdown & Macro Context

Weekly Structure

• Price recently reclaimed the weekly order block (OB) at $5.85–$6.00 after multiple rejections earlier this year. This zone also coincides with prior Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) sweeps, making it a confirmed demand base.

• Above, we have clean Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) at $7.66 and $8.17, with the macro BSL at $9.43 — all untested since 2021.

• The rally from the July lows aggressively filled part of the weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG) left from $6.50–$6.80, leaving some inefficiency still open as support on any retracement.

Our premium members were exposed to our position in Hecla before the major jump to a liquidity magnet we had projected a day before. Our target was sniped to the pip. We will watch HL very closely as it’s one our major holdings. Our premium members will get major signals before the move happens.

Price Projections

Bullish Path:

1. Shallow retrace into $7.20–$7.40 FVG before continuation.

2. Break and hold above $7.66 → $8.17 target, then $9.43 on momentum extension.

Bearish Path:

1. Failure to hold above $7.20 triggers a deeper pullback into $6.80 or even the $6.00 weekly OB.

2. Loss of $5.85 base would invalidate the bullish structure and reopen $5.40 SSL.

Bias: Short-to-medium term bullish, expecting $8.17 to be tagged before any major correction

Fresnillo (FRES.L) – ICT/SMC Technicals + Macro Outlook

Price Projection – Next Week

• Bullish Scenario:

  • Hold above £16.80–£17.00 → reclaim £17.26 → break £17.54 high.

  • First target: £18.44 (liquidity magnet).

  • Secondary target: £20.47 (HTF inefficiency completion).

• Bearish Failure Point:

  • Daily close below £16.80 OB would signal deeper retrace toward £15.50–£15.00, tapping lower liquidity before fresh accumulation.

Bottom Line:

Fresnillo’s current structure remains bullish above £16.80, with immediate targets at £18.44 and £20.47. The confluence of unmitigated FVGs, HTF imbalance, and silver’s macro breakout potential sets the stage for continued upside into August.

Fres is another one of our large positions in the portfolio. We gave a clear signal to our premium members which was hit to the pip.

Avino Silver & Gold Mines (ASM) – ICT/SMC Breakdown & Macro

Current price: ~$3.82

Liquidity map (ICT)

Roadmap: Liquidity Hunts & Price Projections

Base case (favored while > $3.55):

1. Sweep intraday highs $3.83–$3.85 → expansion to $4.10–$4.20.

2. Acceptance above $4.20 targets $4.41, then runs BSL at $4.53.

3. After the $4.53 sweep, expect rebalance back to $3.95–$4.10 (take-profit/reload zone).

4. Sustained strength (> $4.20 after the pullback) opens the FVG/OB at $4.80–$5.10, then $6.23 in a momentum push

Next-week expectations (tactical):

• Early-week: engineered sweep above $3.83–$3.85 is likely.

• Mid-week: watch for retrace into $3.65–$3.70 to fill 4H FVG; if defended, expect a second leg to $4.20–$4.41.

• Late-week: if momentum/volume persists with silver strength, $4.53 BSL can be tagged.

Trading framework (summary)

• Bias: Bullish while >$3.55.

• Longs: Buy $3.65–$3.70 (FVG/OB) → TP1 $4.20, TP2 $4.41, TP3 $4.53; leave runners for $4.80–$5.10.

• Reload zones: Post-$4.53 sweep pullback to $3.95–$4.10; deeper $3.10 only if structure fails.

• Risk: Invalidate on daily close < $3.00–$3.05.

• Silver beta: ASM is a high-beta silver producer; upside accelerates when silver runs (our silver section outlines $39–$41 near-term with $44–$46 later if $41 breaks).

• Supply/demand: Tight mine supply growth vs. rising PV/industrial demand keeps the medium-term skew bullish; juniors like ASM typically outperform in the acceleration phase. (Which we are not at yet)

Mid/term macro targets: Avino is set to perform.

Mid-term (next leg in the bull run)

• First target: $4.53 (previous BSL + liquidity sweep area).

• Second target: $6.23 (key mid-range level before major resistance).

• These are realistic if silver spot stays above ~$35 and continues toward $40+.

Long-term (bull cycle)

• Third target: $8.40 (historical supply zone, strong resistance).

• Fourth target: $9.33–10.50 (prior cycle highs).

Energy Fuels (UUUU) — ICT/SMC Breakdown & Macro

Liquidity map (key levels)

BSL (up): 10.54 → 10.74 → 10.996 → 11.41 → 11.86 → 14.51

SSL (down): 9.30 → 9.03 → 8.80/8.60 (micro) → 8.23 (1H swing) → 7.8–8.3 (HTF FVG)

Price roadmap & projections

Short term (days—2 weeks)

Base case while > $9.20:

1. Dip into $9.20–$9.35 (OB/SSL clean-up).

2. Expansion to $10.54 (first BSL), then $10.74.

3. If acceptance above $10.74, quick run to $10.996 / $11.41 is likely before a rebalance.

Failure path: Lose $9.20 on 4H close → sweep $9.03; if still heavy, slip to $8.60–$8.80; final HTF buy zone $8.20–$8.40.

Mid term (1–3 months)

• After running the $10.74–$11.41–$11.86 stack, look for a displacement → retrace back toward $9.90–$10.20 (re-load), then a measured leg into $12.50–$13.20 and $14.51 (monthly BSL/inefficiency).

• Long term (3–12+ months)

  • Sustained HTF bullishness opens $16.45, then $19.35 (monthly magnets). Expect multi-week consolidations and rebalances after each BSL stack is cleared.

  Invalidation: A weekly close below $8.20 (full breach of HTF FVG) flips bias to neutral/defensive and re-exposes $7s.

What to watch next week

• Do we tag $9.20–$9.35 and show immediate MSS up? If yes, bias for a straight push to $10.54–$10.74.

• A direct reclaim of $9.90–$10.00 without filling $9.20 implies strong hands; expect a faster squeeze to $10.996–$11.41.

• Conversely, failure at $9.20 sets up the $8.60 → $8.20–$8.40 HTF buy.

URA (Global X Uranium ETF) — SMC/ICT roadmap

• Trend: Bullish on 1W/1M (series of higher highs/lows since the cycle low). 1D is in range-to-trend continuation after a displacement up and a shallow retrace into OB/FVG.

Base case (60%): ✅

• Stop-run lower first: quick dip to clean 39.6/39.3 (box floor) or even 38.9 (15m SSL) → mitigation in the 1H/4H OB → expansion to take 41.69 then 42.22 (BSL sweep).

• Targets: 41.7 → 42.2, extension 43.2–43.6 (gap fill) if momentum prints a BOS on 1H.

• Invalidation for this leg: 1H close below 39.00; daily close below 38.6 shifts us to the deeper-pullback path.

Alt (deeper flush, 30%):

• Drive to 38.6–38.0 (full daily FVG/4H green) to harvest SSL and tag the OTE zone → sharp reversal wick → same upside liquidity run to 42.2.

Bear detour (10%):

• A daily close < 36.2 turns the week corrective; then expect 35–34 test before trend resumes.

Mid term (1–3 months)

• After the 42.2 sweep and a small mitigation drift back into 40.5–41.0, prize magnets sit at the monthly steps:
  

  • T1: 45.93 (first major HTF BSL/mid-cycle shelf).

  • T2: 50.12 (round-number + monthly step/old distribution).

• Typical path: 42.2 sweep → pullback 40.5–41.0 → impulsive leg to 45.9 → consolidation → 48–50.

• Invalidation: weekly close < 38.0 delays this leg and opens 36.2 → 34.5 before new buys.

Long term (cycle)

• If the uranium bull cycle persists, the monthly distribution ladders above act like magnets:
  

  • 56.8 → 66.0 → 81.0 → 93.8 over multiple quarters.

  • Full cycle blow-off could target the old composite range toward 125–135 in late-cycle conditions.

TL;DR levels

• Support / re-load: 39.9 → 39.3, then 38.9, deeper 38.6 → 38.0.

• Immediate targets: 41.7 → 42.2.

• Mid-term magnets: 45.9 → 50.1.

• Cycle steps: 56.8 → 66.0 → 81.0 → 93.8 → 125–135 (late cycle).

Macro view (uranium complex)

• Structural deficit persists (long-term contracting, new builds, restarts).

• Fuel-cycle bottlenecks (conversion/enrichment) keep the forward curve tight supports miners on pullbacks.

• Policy/Geopolitics (US supply security, Russian enrichment risk) underpin the theme; volatility spikes on headlines can create the very SSL sweeps we want to buy.

• Risks: sharp risk-off (equities drawdown), Kazakh supply surprises, or a strong USD can delay expansionsbe willing to scale from discount zones only.

URNM ANALYSIS

Projections

• Short term (days → next week):
  

  • Base case: dip-then-rip; defend $45–44 and push to $48.6 → $50.8.

  • If Monday opens soft, watch for a sell-side sweep into $45s, NY AM reversal, and expansion into the afternoon.

  • Failure to reclaim $46.8 after a dip = caution; opens $45 → $43.1 sweep before the next leg up.

• Mid term (1–3 months):
  

  • After taking $50.8, expect consolidation/mitigation back into $47–46 and a second leg to $53.5.

  • Sustained weekly close > $53.5 activates the extension to $59.8–$60.1 (1.618/Monthly BSL).

• Long term (6–18 months):
  

  • If the cycle stays intact, magnets above are $65–66, then $81 and $93 (monthly levels on your 3M chart). These likely require pauses at $60 and will be path-dependent on macro.

GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) — SMC / ICT Game Plan

HTF market structure

• Trend is bullish from the Spring base into a strong weekly/monthly displacement leg toward prior macro highs.

Next week (trade model)

Bias: Expect a Monday/Tuesday Judas swing down to harvest SSL under 57.6–56.9, tapping the 1H OB or even the 1H FVG 55.27–54.74 → then expansion higher.

Execution triggers

• Longs (preferred):
  

  1. Stop-run into 56.9–56.2 with rejection (M15/M5 shift + FVG fill) → target 58.81 BSL, partials; continue to 60–60.2.

  2. Deeper flush into 55.27–54.74 (1H FVG) → look for SMT (GDX holds while XAU makes a marginal LL) and a market-structure shift → targets 58.8 → 60 → 62–63.

Projections

• Short term (days → 2 weeks):
  Base above 56.2–55.0 → 58.81 sweep/close → 60.0–60.2. If momentum holds, extension to 62–63 (old inefficiency pocket).

• Mid term (1–3 months):
  Consolidate above 55–56 and clear 60 → draw on HTF BSL 66.98–67.21. Expect distribution/hedge flows at that ATH band; first touch likely wicks.

• Long term (3–9+ months):
  Acceptance above 67 = price discovery. Use simple external range extensions from the last major impulse: ~72–74 (1.27 ext) then ~80–82 (1.62 ext) as stretch objectives if gold continues trending and real yields roll over.

Macro view (why this should work)

• GDX tracks gold beta: miners tend to outperform XAU on upside legs after volatility compresses.

• Drivers: softer real yields, weaker DXY, and still-elevated macro uncertainty favor a sustained bid for gold and miners.

• Sector internals: breadth has been improving; pullbacks have been imbalance-driven, not distribution (fits the “rebalance then expand” model).

• Risks: sticky real yields, sudden USD spike, or energy/input-cost shocks can force the deeper 52–51 test first.

GDXJ — SMC/ICT map

HTF draw on liquidity (3M/1W): Structure is bullish. We reclaimed the 2023–24 range and are pressing into the prior distribution above 70. Next clean weekly/quarterly buy-side pools are 73.2 (local equal highs/BSL), then the major 2020 swing cluster ~102 (HTF BSL). Below price sits a 3M/1W imbalance ~65–67 that’s now demand.

Price projections

• Short term (days–1-2 weeks):
  Target 73.2 → 74.8–75.5 after a dip into 72.1–71.6. Risk line 71.3 (tight) or 69.0 (swing).

• Mid term (1–3 months):
  If weekly holds above 69–70, look for 78–85 as the next distribution. Chop likely if we ping-pong 66–75 first.

• Long term (6–12 months):
  ~102 is the big quarterly BSL/magnet. On sustained gold strength, extension 112–120 is feasible; loss of 65 postpones it.

Into next week (execution cues)

• Bullish continuation tell: Sweep of 71.8/71.3 during low-liquidity sessions (Asia/London) that closes back above 72.2, then NY run of 73.2.

• Caution: Multiple 15m/1H rejections at 73.0–73.2 without clearing → expect full rebalance to 70.8–69.6 before another push.

Macro view (what matters for juniors)

• Real yields & USD: Falling real yields / softer USD = tailwind to gold and juniors’ beta.

• Gold tape: As long as gold holds above recent breakout zones, juniors should outperform on the upside.

• Costs & breadth: Diesel/energy and labor drive margins; improving breadth across miners would confirm a durable leg.

• Catalysts to watch: CPI/Fed rhetoric (yields), USD trend, and gold futures positioning (crowded longs can force shakes).

SILV

Price projections

Short term (days–2 weeks):

• Bullish path: hold above 24.90–25.05 → 25.80–26.20; stretch 26.60–26.90 if momentum.

• Bearish flush first: tag 24.40–24.15 → reversal buys back to 25.80–26.20.

• Invalidation for near-term longs: daily close <24.15 opens 23.80–23.40.

Mid term (1–3 months):

• While D1 closes hold >24.00, projection 27.50 → 28.30 → 29.20–30.00 (HTF BSLs/round number).

• Sideways scenario: 24.0–26.8 range to refill imbalances before the next leg.

Long term (3–12 months):

• If macro tailwinds persist (lower real yields / softer USD / new ATHs in gold), run to 32.50, then 35–36 (major HTF supply) is achievable.

• Break and weekly acceptance <23.4 would delay this and shift target to 22.2–21.6 (deep weekly FVG).

Into next week (execution cues)

• Look for a 15m BOS + FVG inside 25.05–24.90 to frame longs toward 26.0+.

• If NY session pushes straight up into 26.6–26.9, that’s ideal for scalp fades back to 25.9–25.6 after a stop-run.

Bottom line: Bias is up. Best R/R is buying rebalance dips (25.0 or 24.4–24.1) aiming for 26–27+, with a hard line at 24.15 for short-term longs. Long-only swing bias remains while daily closes stay >24; bigger picture points to 29–30, then 32.5–36 if macro cooperates.

MINERS

SSV — SMC / ICT Roadmap (macro → intraday)

Macro (6M/1M): Price is building a long base in deep discount of the 0.34–0.70 external range. HTF buy-side pools sit at 0.34 (BSL) → 0.70 (monthly BSL) → 1.48 (HTF BSL), with legacy liquidity ladders higher (1.94 / 2.90 / 3.79 / 6.51 / 7.61 / 13.21). Any sustained weekly close above each rung should draw to the next.

Price Projections

• Short term (days–2 weeks):
  • Base hold >0.195 → 0.24–0.26, then 0.27–0.30.
  • Failure → quick stop run 0.195–0.190 before the same upside path.

• Mid term (1–3 months):
  • On daily/weekly closes >0.30–0.31 → 0.34, then 0.40–0.45 → 0.50–0.55 → 0.70.

• Long term (cycle):
  • Weekly acceptance >0.70 → 1.00–1.20 → 1.48 → stretch 1.94 / 2.90+ if a broader metals bull run persists.

Projections:

• Short: 0.24–0.26 → 0.27–0.30.

• Mid: 0.34 → 0.50–0.55 → 0.70.

• Long: 1.00–1.20 → 1.48 → 2.90+.

BRC — SMC / ICT read

Macro (3M & 1M):

• Price has respected the 3M bullish OB (big green base) and is expanding away from it.

• A large 1M FVG sits ~0.80–1.00, with an old liquidity shelf/BSL ~0.95 and the major BSL/HTF high at ~1.61. Bias: higher-time-frame draw on liquidity remains up into that monthly imbalance.

Price projections

• Short term (days → next week):
  

  • Support: 0.60–0.61 (OB), 0.56–0.58 (OTE).

  • Upside targets: 0.64 BSL ➜ 0.70–0.72.

  • Invalidation for the near-term long idea: sustained H1 trade <0.595.

• Mid term (weeks):
  

  • Primary draw: 0.80–1.00 monthly FVG, with 0.95 the magnet.

  • Expect consolidation/repricing inside that block once tapped.

• Long term (months):
  

  • If 0.95 is reclaimed and held, path opens to the HTF BSL ~1.61.

AGMR

Macro / higher-timeframe context (3M/1M)

• Structure turning up from a long base; last impulsive leg left clean resting BSL above 1.90 and a stacked target cluster at 2.09 → 2.25 → 2.38 (monthly magnets/inefficiencies).

Price projections

• Short term (days–2 weeks / into next week):

  • Primary: 1.90 sweep, then 2.09.

  • Stretch: 2.25 → 2.38 if momentum persists.

  • Pullback buys: 1.56–1.50 (shallow) or 1.35–1.25 (deeper).

• Mid term (1–3 months):

  • Consolidation above 1.90 then full fill to 2.38; acceptance > 2.38 targets a new distribution range 2.40–2.70.

• Long term (6–18 months, contingent on HTF trend):

  • If weekly closes hold above 2.40, roadmap points to legacy BSL at 5.89, then 7.16.

NEM (Newmont) — SMC/ICT Roadmap

Bias: HTF bullish. Weekly BOS after reclaiming the prior range; strong displacement into a fresh premium. Draw on liquidity points north remain untagged.

Projections

• Short term (days–2 weeks): 70.3 → 72.0–74.0, with healthy pullback risk to 66–64 first.

• Mid term (1–3 months): Tag 77.5. Hold above 70 on weekly closes keeps the draw open to 79–82 (void extension) after quarterly BSL is cleaned.

• Long term (cycle): While HTF remains constructive and miners’ breadth stays firm, 82–90 is viable later in the cycle, provided weekly > 61–58 holds and any 1D rebalances are bought.

DBC — SMC/ICT Roadmap

HTF context (3M/1W): Price is mid-range, capped by a weekly supply/old BSL at 22.5–23.3 (multiple rejections), with resting SSL under 20.8–19.8. Macro BSL sits up at 27.9; ultimate legacy high ~40.

Short term (days–1 week): Bias down first into 21.2 → 20.8; from sweep, look for displacement buys to 22.2 then 22.9–23.3. Invalidation for the long scalp <19.8 (daily close).

Mid term (4–8 weeks): If 23.3 is closed above, project 24.6–25.2, with stretch 26.4–27.9. If not, range persists 19.8–23.3 with repeated liquidity raids both sides.

Long term (3–12 months): Sustained acceptance >27.9 targets 30–32, then 34–36; blow-off scenario reaches ~40. Lose 19.8 on a weekly close and we pivot to 18.6 → 17.5 before any higher-timeframe bid.

TNX. US 10 year yield

TNX still has short/mid-term upside liquidity hunts in play, but these could be the last gasp before the multi-year yield decline that fuels gold’s parabolic stage

📅 Macro Week Ahead — Aug 11–15, 2025

Monday, Aug 11

• 🇬🇧 BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Jul)

  • Consensus: 2.5% | Previous: 2.7%

  • UK consumer spending trends — a soft print would point to retail fatigue ahead of Q3.

• Tuesday, Aug 12

Heavy Data Day

• 🇦🇺 NAB Business Confidence (Jul)

  • Cons: 3 | Prev: 5

  • Gauges corporate sentiment; weaker readings may weigh on AUD.

• 🇦🇺 RBA Interest Rate Decision

  • Cons: 3.6% | Prev: 3.85%

  • Market split on a cut vs. hold. This is a high-volatility risk for AUD, gold, and risk assets.

  🇬🇧 Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (Jun)

  • Jobs growth slowing (65k vs. prev 134k). Unchanged unemployment rate (4.7%) expected. Labour softness could push GBP lower.

  🇺🇸 Inflation Data Cluster (Jul)

  • YoY CPI: 2.8% vs. 2.7% prev

  • Core CPI MoM: 0.3% vs. 0.2% prev

  • CPI Index Levels: Both headline and seasonally adjusted readings expected to tick higher.

  • Why it matters: If CPI surprises to the upside, Fed cut expectations for September could get repriced, hitting gold/silver short term but potentially boosting USD.

• Thursday, Aug 14

• 🇦🇺 Employment Change (Jul): 21.5k expected vs. 2k prior.

• 🇦🇺 Unemployment Rate (Jul): Seen steady at 4.3%.

• 🇬🇧 GDP Data (MoM, QoQ, YoY)

  • Growth slowdown expected: QoQ 0.1% vs. prev 0.7%; YoY 0.7% vs. 1.3% prior. GBP could weaken further if misses deepen recession fears.

• 🇬🇧 Trade Balance (Non-EU & total): Still deeply negative — reinforces UK’s structural trade gap.

• 🇪🇺 Employment Change (Q2): Flat growth expected.

• 🇺🇸 Jobless Claims (Initial/Continuing): Watching for early signs of US labour softening.

• 🇺🇸 PPI MoM (Jul): 0.2% vs. 0% prev — any upside surprise would echo into inflation expectations.

Friday, Aug 15

• 🇺🇸 Retail Sales Data Cluster (Jul)
  

  • Multiple breakdowns (Control Group, Ex-Autos, Ex-Gas) — consensus sees a slowdown from prior month’s stronger readings.

  • A weak set will fuel “soft landing” narrative but also raise Fed cut odds.

• 🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug): 62.1 expected vs. 61.7 prior — sentiment still fragile.

🎯 What to Watch for Market Impact

1. US CPI & Retail Sales (Tue & Fri) — Directly influence Fed rate path; watch DXY, gold, silver, yields.

2. RBA Decision (Tue) — Possible policy shift; AUD-sensitive commodities like gold could react.

3. UK GDP & Jobs Data (Tue & Thu) — If both are weak, GBP could fall sharply; bullish for gold in GBP terms.

4. EU ZEW Sentiment (Tue) — If drop is steep, could add to EUR softness; indirectly supports USD and precious metals.

📈 Positioning Implications for Commodities

• Gold/Silver:
  

  • Hotter US CPI → short-term pullback risk as yields rise.

  • Weak retail sales + soft labour → bullish for metals as Fed cut odds rise.

• Uranium/Energy:
  

  • RBA dovishness could weigh on AUD, affecting Aussie-listed uranium names.

• Macro:

  • Broad risk sentiment could swing mid-week with inflation data, creating a volatility pocket in equities and FX that spills into metals.

MACRO ANALYSIS

🌍 Macro Outlook – Week of Aug 11, 2025

Date: Sunday, 10 August 2025

Market Focus: CPI, retail sales, central bank positioning, BRICS momentum

Global Macro Pulse

We move into mid-August with gold pressing record highs and silver flirting with breakout levels. The coming week is data-heavy and likely to be a volatility pocket for metals, currencies, and yields.

Key macro currents right now:

• US Inflation Dynamics: July CPI lands Tuesday. Consensus sees +0.2% MoM headline, +0.3% MoM core. A hot print (>0.3%) risks a hawkish repricing of September Fed cuts, lifting the USD and real yields short-term. A soft print (<0.2%) re-steepens the rate-cut narrative a tailwind for gold and silver.

• Growth Soft Spots: WTI’s slide into the mid-$60s signals softer nominal growth and demand a disinflationary input but also a macro slowdown warning. Historically, that’s positive for gold if central banks lean dovish.

• Central Bank Bid: China’s PBoC added gold for the 9th consecutive month in July. The World Gold Council reports record dollar-value demand in Q2, with ETF inflows returning a rare alignment of official sector, investor, and OTC buying.

• Geopolitical Overlay: Tariffs, trade fragmentation, and risk-premia keep strategic gold demand elevated. Silver’s outlook has been upgraded by several desks purely on the back of gold’s structural bid.

The Gold Revaluation Thesis (2025)

When we say revaluation, we’re not talking about an official fixed-price reset, but a market-led repricing of gold’s role in the monetary system.

The mechanics:

1. Reserve Diversification is Policy:
   EM central banks led by China are diversifying away from USD assets. Even modest monthly tonnages are meaningful at current price levels. This creates a structural floor under gold.

2. Financial Repression Arithmetic:
   Inflation averaging ~3% and policy rates capped by growth fragility keep real yields contained. That reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold and supports higher equilibrium prices.

3. BRICS & De-Dollarization:
   No imminent gold-backed BRICS currency instead, there’s a quiet build-out of local-currency settlement and payments infrastructure. As USD invoicing share erodes at the margin, gold becomes the neutral reserve asset of choice.

4. Flow Feedback Loops:
   Record value of demand + visible ETF inflows → higher liquidity at higher prices → acceptance of gold’s role as Tier 1 collateral across jurisdictions.

Why this matters now:

We’re entering a phase where central bank buying + macro policy constraints work in the same direction. This is the kind of backdrop where “revaluation” doesn’t come as a single announcement it creeps into the market clearing price month by month.

This Week’s Macro Landmines

Tuesday, Aug 12 – US CPI, Core CPI, RBA Decision, UK Jobs, ZEW Sentiment

• CPI is the main event; the rest will set tone for USD crosses.

• RBA: Slight dovish tilt possible; AUD-sensitive metals could pop.

Thursday, Aug 14 – UK GDP, US PPI & Jobless Claims

• UK growth slowdown would weigh on GBP; gold in GBP terms could hit fresh highs.

Friday, Aug 15 – US Retail Sales & Michigan Sentiment

• Weak retail → dovish Fed tilt, metals friendly.

• Strong print → delays cuts, pressures gold short-term.

Positioning Playbook

• Hot CPI (>0.3% core MoM): Short-term USD pop, gold pullback; use dips toward key support to scale in.

• Soft CPI (<0.2% core MoM) + weak retail: Gold/silver breakout risk; silver outperforms on beta.

• Watch GBP & AUD: Weak UK/AU prints add local-currency tailwinds for gold.

The monetary world is shifting under our feet. The BRICS bloc, now in its expanded “BRICS+” form, is laying the foundations for a parallel financial systemand gold is the keystone.

BRICS+ Expansion – A New Monetary Bloc

What began as a loose economic alliance of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa has transformed into a geopolitical force with new members: Egypt, Ethiopia, the UAE, Iran, and Indonesia. Collectively, BRICS+ now commands:

• ~45% of global population

• ~36% of world GDP (PPP)

• Control over critical commodity supply chains, from oil and gas to uranium, rare earths, and industrial metals.

This expansion is not symbolic it’s the architecture for a self-contained trade and settlement network that can operate independently of the dollar.

The Revaluation Play

Revaluation isn’t about adding a few hundred dollars to the spot priceit’s about changing the unit of account in the global system.

With gold already at ~$3,400/oz, a deliberate repricing to $5,000, $8,000, or even $10,000 per ounce would:

• Instantly boost BRICS+ sovereign balance sheets.

• Provide bulletproof collateral for gold-backed settlement units.

• Undercut the dollar’s monopoly on global commodity pricing.

Example: Russia’s official reserves at $3,400 are worth ~$255B. At $8,000/oz, that becomes ~$600B without mining another ounce.

Parallel Financial Infrastructure

The strategy appears to be unfolding in three stages:

1. Stockpile & Conceal – Accumulate gold in both official and shadow channels.

2. Deploy Settlement Tech – Blockchain-based, T+0 systems for cross-border trade.

3. Commodity Pricing Shift – Oil, gas, and metals priced in gold-linked units instead of USD.

This doesn’t “replace” the dollar it builds a shadow settlement layer where gold is the hard collateral.

5. The Supercycle Connection

This shift ties directly into the commodities supercycle:

• Monetary demand from central banks is structurally different from speculative demand it’s sticky and long-term.

• Tight supply means small changes in available ounces create outsized price moves.

• A gold revaluation would pull silver and other monetary/energy metals into the same repricing orbit.

Bottom Line:

BRICS+ isn’t just diversifying away from the dollarit’s building a monetary ecosystem anchored by revalued gold. With gold already in the $3,400 range, the market is much closer to “Phase One” of revaluation than most investors realize. The next leg could see gold formally priced in a way that reflects its role not as a commodity, but as the settlement asset of a multipolar world.

Final Word

We’re entering a phase in the commodity supercycle where liquidity is shifting on a global scale from central banks stockpiling gold to energy markets rebalancing and industrial metals tightening supply. Using SMC and ICT concepts, we’ve mapped the short-term raids, mid-term expansions, and long-term targets that align with this macro picture.

The road ahead won’t be a straight line, but that’s the point every shakeout and liquidity hunt is part of the playbook. The key is knowing where price wants to go and why. We’re positioned for the next major leg, and as the market hunts liquidity, we’ll be hunting opportunity.

Stay nimble. Stay prepared. The real move is still ahead.

Our Premium signals group will be navigating the market next week with us taking onboard where smart money is positioned and getting liquidity maps laid out for them. Hopefully we see you there.

Take care,

SuperCycle Capital

• Central Banks: Accumulating gold at near-record pace.

• COT Positioning: Commercials lightening net shorts in gold/silver.

• M&A Rumblings: Quiet accumulation of juniors continues insiders are active.

• Retail Sentiment: Frustration, fatigue, boredom classic early bull market emotions.

🌍 Macro View: Geopolitics, BRICS, and the Economic Tectonic Shift

The global commodity thesis continues to accelerate as macro and geopolitical drivers align:

• Gold is now trading at $3,362, a multi-century breakout backed by global central bank demand.

• Silver at $37 remains under-owned despite its monetary and industrial role.

• Oil dipped this week, while Copper holds critical macro significance (see analysis below).

• The US dollar (DXY) has weakened sharply to 98.21, reinforcing precious metals strength.

• Equity markets are turning over, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both showing -1.6% to -1.8% weekly losses.

Geopolitically, BRICS+ nations are accelerating plans for alternative trade systems. De-dollarization is no longer theoretical it’s now functionally underway. With Saudi Arabia, Iran, and others joining BRICS and calling for energy settlements in yuan or gold, the monetary regime is visibly shifting.

Meanwhile, central banks continue to hoard gold, led by China and the Global South. The financial elite are preparing for systemic change while retail still sleeps.

Geopolitical Pressures

• BRICS+ Movement:

  • Expanded bloc now includes key commodity-rich nations (Russia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE).

  • Plans for cross-border trade in local currencies + gold settlement. This weakens the dollar and supports a bid for commodities.

  • 2025 BRICS currency summit could introduce gold-linked trade unit or CBDC-backed token.

• De-Dollarization Accelerating:

  • Yuan and gold usage increasing in African, Asian, and Middle Eastern trade.

  • Saudi-China oil contracts in yuan are becoming normalized.

  • Physical gold movement eastward is historically significant—mirroring 1970s dynamics.

• Supply Chain Fragmentation:

  • Resource nationalism rising. More bans, tariffs, and export controls are likely (e.g., Mexico, Chile, Indonesia).

  • Miners in friendly jurisdictions (Canada, US, Australia) could command premium valuations.

Macroeconomic Forces

• Real Yields Falling: Despite nominal rates holding steady, inflation expectations are quietly rising. This compresses real yields, historically acting as rocket fuel for gold and hard assets.

• Fiscal Dominance: Central banks are no longer independent guardians of price stability. Deficits are being monetized (stealth QE), creating long-term structural tailwinds for precious metals.

• Debt Spiral: Global debt has exceeded $315 trillion, creating a toxic mix where monetary tightening is limited. The only politically viable path? Financial repression, currency debasement, and rising hard asset prices.

• Soft Landing Myth: US equity markets are pricing in a soft landing. But PMIs, credit tightening, and lagged effects of rate hikes suggest stagflation or slowdown is more realistic, favoring commodities over risk assets.

🧠 SMC + ICT Analysis on Copper (XCUUSD)

📍 Current Price: $4.476
📉 Previous High: ~$5.87
🧭 Bias: Bullish long-term, short-term consolidation.

FVG=Fair value gap

OB=Order block

-ANALYSIS AND PRICE PROJECTION

🔍 1D Chart Summary:

• Macro Bias: Bullish (confirmed by long-term accumulation).

• Price Action:

  • Price is currently consolidating just above a respected bullish OB.

  • Previous OB above invalidated by a large bearish candle = liquidity grab, suggesting institutional sell-side delivery.

  • New support forming at $4.05–$4.37 zone (deep OB retest).

• Conclusion: Institutions likely accumulating. Looking for a clean break and retest above the consolidation zone to confirm upside continuation.

🕒 4H Chart Summary:

• Structure: Clean sweep of highs, then fast sell-off = liquidity run.

• Current price is sitting within a defined bullish OB.

• No clean displacement yet, but tight accumulation forming just above the OB.

• Imbalance above in $4.90–$5.10 range provides a magnetic draw once a breakout occurs.

🔁 What to watch for:

• Price to reclaim $4.60+ and form a bullish breaker structure.

• Volume spike or news catalyst triggering a breakout.

⏱️ 1H Chart Summary:

• Consolidation range: Between $4.37 (demand zone) and $4.48 (minor resistance).

• Price creating equal highs just under a small inefficiency.

• Suggests liquidity pool above – likely to be targeted before any major move.

• Entry scenario (ICT-style): Wait for a market structure shift + FVG entry once price purges liquidity above.

🎯 Price Projection:

1. Short-Term Target: $4.60 (fair value gap + liquidity above range).

2. Mid-Term Target: $4.90–$5.10 (premium inefficiency zone).

3. Long-Term Macro Target: >$6.00 (trend continuation into bull cycle).

🛡️ Risk Scenarios:

• Bearish invalidation if we lose $4.37 and break down with displacement into $4.00.

• That would signal a deeper correction into macro OB territory.

📌 Summary:

Copper is respecting SMC principles:

• OB respected ✔️

• Liquidity run ✔️

• Consolidation = accumulation ✔️

• Inefficiencies above = draw on liquidity ✔️

Smart money appears to be reloading. Patience is key — breakout confirmation will likely bring rapid delivery to $4.90+.

🌍 Macro + Geopolitical Overview

Copper remains a strategic BRICS accumulation metal, as Brazil, China, and Russia move further into resource-backed infrastructure programs.

Accumulation range between $4.35–$4.48.

Final liquidity sweep incoming — likely delivery into $4.90–$5.10.

🧠 Smart Money Concepts & ICT Analysis on URA (Global X Uranium ETF)

🔍 1. Weekly Chart (Macro View):

• Strong Institutional Rally from ~$20 to $42 over several months.

• First rejection at premium (around $42.22 – a prior liquidity grab).

• Currently pulling back into a bullish order block zone around $38–$39, which served as:

  • Previous breakout area

  • Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the weekly timeframe

• Price is retesting this area after creating a liquidity sweep of the highs, suggesting Smart Money may be preparing for continuation higher after rebalancing.

📌 Weekly Bias: Bullish Continuation (expecting re-accumulation above $38 unless $36 fails).

⏱️ 2. Daily Chart (Execution View):

• Price formed a market structure shift (MSS) to the upside in June.

• The current dip is testing a daily FVG + previous demand zone, aligning with the weekly OB.

• Equal highs remain unbroken near $42.20 — a classic Smart Money liquidity magnet.

• This consolidation within the range appears to be a bullish reaccumulation.

📌 Daily Bias: Buy-side liquidity draw targeting $42.20+, if price holds above the $36–$38 support zone.

🕐 3. 1H Chart (Entry/Refinement):

• Price swept a minor low into a 1H imbalance around $38.20, then printed bullish reaction candles.

• This area lines up with a clear 1H demand block, showing a potential refined entry point for Smart Money longs.

• Look for a clean break above $39.50 and a FVG fill to confirm accumulation is complete.

📌 1H Bias: Intraday accumulation; potential setup for long continuation toward macro highs.

🎯 Conclusion:

Smart Money appears to be accumulating URA after a parabolic leg. The pullback into a confluence of demand, FVG, and order blocks suggests a high-probability continuation setup. Monitor price behavior near $38–$39 — if this zone holds, the next leg may target $44+ before any deeper correction

📊 Smart Money Concepts + ICT Analysis — URNM Sprott uranium miners ETF

Timeframes Reviewed:

• Weekly (1W)

• Daily (1D)

• 1H (Intraday)

🧠 Smart Money Narrative

Institutional Narrative: After a strong uranium rally earlier in 2025, URNM printed a swing high at $50.77, followed by a pullback into a key SMC demand block between $43.10–$44.80, now acting as a reaccumulation zone.

This zone shows signs of order block support, likely used by institutions to engineer long re-entries before the next leg up.

🔍 SMC Technicals

• Daily OB (Order Block): ~$43.10–$44.80
  (Price tapped and wicked into this zone, showing signs of demand absorption)

• Liquidity Grab: Price swept short-term liquidity on the 1H chart before reversing—classic ICT manipulation model setup. This shows smart money is running stops below structure, then rebalancing in a favorable zone.

• Market Structure Shift: The 1D timeframe shows a clear BOS (Break of Structure) above previous lower highs, before retracing to the OB—a bullish ICT fractal.

• Fair Value Gap (FVG): Price partially filled FVG on 1H; further upside potential remains open toward the $50.77 inefficiency zone.

$43.10 - Demand Zone Low / SMC Order Block🛡️ Support

$44.80 Current Price ⚠️ Pivot

$50.77 Previous Swing High / Liquidity Target 📈 Target

$30.05 Macro Swing Low 🧱 Emergency Support (Invalidation)

📈 Trade Thesis

Smart money appears to have:

• Engineered a stop run under short-term lows.

• Rebalanced into an SMC order block near $44.

• Left upside inefficiencies and liquidity pools at $50.77+

Bias: Bullish continuation if OB holds and price reclaims local structure.

🔒GOLD & SILVER as well as MINING STOCK analysis on our paid subscription wednesday signals.

ENTRY LEVEL: SuperCycle Checklist. Full run through + more signals as well as a complete version ticked off on our paid subscribers package.

🧠 Smart Money Behavior

• Is commercial hedging reducing? (COT net short positions falling)🔒

• Are central banks still buying gold? (e.g. China, Russia, BRICS)🔒

• Are there signs of M&A activity in miners?🔒

🏦 Macro Landscape

• Are real interest rates flat or negative?🔒

• Is the US dollar weakening (DXY < 100)?🔒

• Is inflation sticky or re-accelerating?🔒

• Are bonds struggling / yields rising?🔒

💥 Geopolitical Drivers

• Are BRICS countries pushing for gold-backed trade or currency?🔒

• Is there escalating tension (e.g. Taiwan, Middle East, Russia)?🔒

• Is de-dollarization accelerating? (e.g. oil settled in yuan/gold)🔒

💡 Retail + Sentiment

• Is social media buzzing with frustration, boredom, or early hype in gold/silver?🔒

• Are influencers talking about other assets (e.g. tech, crypto), ignoring metals?🔒

• Is the Silver Hype Thermometer still cold or warming up?🔒

🔍 Physical Market Signals

• Are silver/gold premiums rising in physical markets?🔒

• Are silver lease rates spiking? (bullish scarcity signal)🔒

• Is inventory falling on COMEX/LBMA?🔒

🧭 Toolkit Alignment

• Do 4+ categories above show clear green lights?🔒

• Are you emotionally grounded and following your plan?🔒

• Is your scale-in or scale-out strategy clear and ready?🔒

🔒 Premium Section — Deep Macro Analysis (For Paid Subscribers Only)

✅ In-depth gold revaluation thesis
✅ Rotation signals: which miners are next
✅ Smart money COT breakdowns by commodity
✅ Blowoff signals tracker + Silver $50 checklist
✅ Portfolio heatmap and scale-out targets
✅ Weekly trade setups using ICT/SMC principles
✅ Institutional flow on select juniors

If you're investing in mining stocks, know where your capital is going:

• Explorers: High risk, high reward. No production, just drilling. (e.g., early-stage silver juniors)

• Developers: Have a resource, building toward production. Value can re-rate rapidly with a financing or permit.

• Producers: Cash-flowing companies with stable output. Often safer but less explosive.

💡 Match your risk profile. Early-cycle, many smart money players accumulate explorers. Mid-cycle, developers and takeovers shine

🔒On our paid subscription we add mining stock picks and full chart analysis using smart money concepts tracking price action.

🧰 Entry-Level Supercycle Toolkit Checklist

✅ Gold above $3,300
✅ Silver pushing $37

🔒GOLD & SILVER Price prediction short term and long term tracking the smart money flows and ICT concepts on paid subscription.

✅ DXY breaking down
✅ Bond market instability
✅ Physical premiums creeping higher
✅ Smart money positioning strong
✅ Retail sentiment low & unaware

KEY SIGNALS

US Debt-to-GDP

BRICS Gold Accumulation (up=bullish)

Central Bank Gold Buying (bullish)

GSR (Gold/Silver Ratio) (Bullish for silver)

DXY - 98 Bullish for metals

Real Yields

Retail Sentiment

🔑 Summary

The macro setup is ripe. Gold has already broken out. Silver and copper are coiling for their next move. Uranium is quietly climbing. The West is focused on tech stocks and AI mania — while smart money is accumulating real assets behind the scenes.

You are not late. You are early. And the next 6–12 months could be explosive.

Gold

• $3,300+ breakout confirms regime change. Gold is no longer a hedge—it’s becoming a central asset for sovereign balance sheets.

• Central bank demand remains ferocious, with record Q2 buying led by China, Turkey, India, Singapore.

• Real interest rate compression + rising inflation = gold bull accelerant.

• IMF discussions on monetary reforms are no longer fringe—gold revaluation whispers are rising.

Silver

• Industrial + monetary hybrid asset. Demand from EVs, solar, and electronics is squeezing already-tight supplies.

• Retail is still asleep—a contrarian’s dream.

• Key level: $38–$42 zone will trigger emotional breakout.

Uranium

• Policy momentum aligning: Nuclear is no longer taboo. U.S., Japan, France, China all expanding capacity.

• Physical trust & funds (SPUT) absorbing spot inventory.

• Still early in the inventory/price reaction cycle.

You’re not here for noise.
You’re here for clarity, conviction, and cycle mastery.

This report keeps you rooted, informed, and ahead of the herd.

👉 Free Tier: Get smart money charts, macro insights, toolkit walk-throughs.
🔒 Paid Tier: Unlock deep macro + institutional trade zones before the crowd sees them.

Stay sharp. Stay contrarian. Stay grounded.

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Why this, why now?

We are standing in front of one of the biggest financial transitions in history - a global realignment of currencies, commodities and capital.

I created Supercycle capital to help serious investors navigate the coming commodity Supercycle with clarity, discipline and conviction.

While most will follow the hype, we are here to track the smart money, map the cycle phases and prepare the few who want to exit at the top not after the peak.

What kind of capital research community are we building here?

This is not for everyone. This is for the focused minority who see through the noise - the contrarians, commodity bulls and stackers who want to grow their wealth by understanding the macro moves behind the curtain.

If you are tired of guessing and want to build a rational plan to scale out of the Supercycle strategically - you are in the right place.

What you will get(free):

-Weekly Sunday Supercycle report

-Macro and market phase analysis

-Sentiment signals + retail psychology tracking

-Gold silver and uranium coverage

-Access to the free Supercycle toolkit PDF

Premium members also get:

-Midweek premium signals and strategy briefings

-Smart money trackers (COT, lease rates, positioning, SMC and ICT, charts)

-Personal roadmap

-Blow off models and reallocation plans

-Access to the toolkit vault PDFs, checklists and rotation maps.

We are entering the next leg of this cycle.

i will be covering it every stage and more importantly how i am positioning.

This is built to help you stay grounded and scale out strategically with focus and financial clarity.

Welcome to Super Cycle Capital